Washington DC Regional Market Updates

Existing home sales across the nation took a surprise jump in December, but most experts say that trend (nationwide) is unlikely to continue given further economic decline. Moody's, however, is optimistic: claiming that 2009 is the "bottom."

Our local economy and flow of investment dollars continues to outperform the nation's averages.

Forbes recently named DC as one of the best places to buy real estate right now, and the Association of Foreign Investors also named DC as #1 on its list of top global cities for investment.

Where there is money and investment, there are jobs, and where there are jobs, there are people that need homes, whether rental or purchase. Here are some of the headlines this month indicating continued investment in our area.

• Hilton Hotels just "checked in" to Fairfax, bringing investment and jobs with it.
• Northern Virginia is prepping to aggressively go after its share of stimulus dollars with its lengthy list of "shovel ready projects"
• The Montgomery County Council moved another step closer to building the Purple line linking Bethesda and New Carrollton

Ready to start your search for a home in the DC or Northern Virginia area? Consider attending one of my free first time home buyer classes - details are here. Or start searching for homes in the MLS here.

Thinking of selling? Contact me to to discuss the impact these developments might have on your home's value!

December 2008 Market Stats Available

MRIS (the consortium that owns our regional multiple listing service) has published the December 2008 stats, and I've updated graphs at my website (click on links below).

Arlington Market Stats - Arlington continues to post strong numbers. Only 4.91 months of inventory available, and of the homes that sold in December, an amazing 40% sold in under 1 month! Days on market held steady at 70, and average price increased slightly from the prior month.

Northern Virginia Market Stats - Of note here is the 37% increase in sales in December vs November, and an 8% decline in inventory, bringing the months of inventory down to 5.09 (6 months is considered a balanced market.) December 2007 was a 7.3 months inventory level.

DC Market Stats - Average price dropped significantly from prior month and prior year, which perhaps contributed to the amazing 34% increase in sales in December over November. And when it's good, it's good...almost 40% of the homes that sold in December had contracts in under one month.

Montgomery County Market Stats - MoCo continues to be a strong buyer's market, with the average price almost 20% below the same month in 2007. And the buyers responded--sales increased 22% over the prior month.

The big picture: Still a buyer's market in terms of price and selection, but drops in inventory and huge increases in contracts means the buyers are out there, circling, and ready to jump on good properties quickly if necessary.

If you're thinking about listing your home for sale, contact me to discuss how we can make your home one of those that sells in 30 days. Or sign up for a free Selling Your Home class.

If you're a buyer, give me a ring to talk about the stats in the specific neighborhoods you're looking. Or sign up for a free first time home buyer class.

Search the MLS

First Time Home Buyer Class - Scheduled in Arlington

Note> For the most recent schedule of dates for 2008 and 2009, please visit the First Time Home Buyer class page at my website. Classes will be held in Montgomery County, DC, Arlington, and elsewhere in Northern Virginia.

The first classes of 2009 are now scheduled at Arlington County Library. As in the past, there is absolutely no cost or obligation to attend this one hour educational session where we will recap the current market conditions (including stats like days on market, inventory levels, and average sales prices), discuss the future outlook, and provide an overview of the home purchase process, including common pitfalls and financing basics. Simply contact us to register (enter seminar and the date in the comments) so that we may have materials available for you. Space is limited. Details are as follows:

Date(s):
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
7:15 pm - 8:30 pm
registration required

Logistics:

Arlington Central Library, 2nd floor meeting room
1015 N. Quincy St
Arlington, VA
Metro: Orange Line/Ballston

Cost: There is no obligation, and the session is FREE, but registration is required by emailing me at Katie@katiewethman.com. Seating is limited.

Related Link: Search the MLS

Read More: Working with Katie as Your Buyer's Agent

Read More: Buyer's Resources

Read More: $7500 Home Buyer Credit

How will the election and relocating administration staff impact the Washington, DC, area real estate market?

I’m often asked whether the market will pick up after the election, with the incoming administration. Whether the Republicans or Democrats win, a wave of new junior staffers and senior officials will sweep into Washington, DC. My guess is that the impact on the real estate market will be positive—by which I mean positive for sellers--for this reason: people who make a career of politics often don’t leave once they’re here.

What I mean is this: many of the current administration won’t leave, so it’s not a one-for-one swap in residents even with a complete turnover in administration. Some will have fallen in love with the area, some will have kids in schools or other local commitments that they don’t want to give up, many will be absorbed into local lobbying and law firms. So 100% of the current administration won’t be leaving. Of course there will be some houses put on the market, but I’m guessing not many.

On the flip side, though some of the next administration will undoubtedly already be living locally, there will be definitely be an influx of new residents as staffers and administration are relocated here from other parts of the country for their new appointments. Those people all need a place to live, whether it’s renting or buying. Junior staffers will undoubtedly rent, but senior officials and their families could just as easily look to buy—especially when they absorb the sticker shock of high rental prices in this area. They’ll likely decide this is certainly a good time to buy, with historically low rates, relatively high (though shrinking) level of inventory from which to choose, and their new four-to-eight year time horizon. The District and Arlington, after all, were recently named two of the top ten places to live in a recession, and our local real estate market has held up relatively well versus most of the country.

Since most of these new residents will be working in the District, I expect the real estate market to tighten in the District and close in, metro-accessible areas like Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Silver Spring, Falls Church, and Vienna. Outer areas like Prince William likely won’t see a bump, but that’s okay—their current uptick is coming from the investor community.

Time will tell, but I predict that the incoming administration will cause a tightening of both the rental and purchase markets in close-in areas.

Are you a member of the new administration looking for help in understanding the local real estate market? Confused about where to rent or buy? I’m licensed in DC, VA, and MD and would love to help you. Contact me for an overview of the area and the local real estate trends.

DC & Arlington Named Best Places to Be During a Recession

Worried about the economy? Here's a bit of good news: DC and Arlington were named by Business Week as two of the top ten places to live during a recession. Cities with a focus on health care, law, education, energy, and government rose to the top. The article notes:

Government towns tend to be relatively stable because—even though budgets are slashed—the public sector still must pay the salaries of politicians, building inspectors, police officers, military personnel, and tax-authority employees. Cities that we think might benefit from government employment include Chesapeake, Va., near the massive Norfolk Naval base, and the state capitals of Baton Rouge, La.; Lincoln, Neb.; and Madison, Wis.

And another piece of good news for our local area: the bailout will be a boon to our local economy. The Washington Business Journal notes:

...the most massive government takeover of private capital in U.S. history likely will bring economic activity to the region’s economy, in much the same way the tragedy of the 9/11 terrorist attacks spawned a new homeland security sector, the panelists said. The savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s also led to another government boon, the creation of the Resolution Trust Corp., which maintained office space in downtown D.C. for a decade to deal with fallout from the S&L insolvencies.

“It’s going to create a whole new industry of services for all of us, for the banking sector, for commercial real estate, the advisory and brokerage sector, legal and accounting,” said David Kessler, a principal with the accounting firm Reznick Group P.C. “We’re going to see a boost in the local economy as a result of that.”

Another boon from the bailout: the $5000 tax credit for DC first time home buyers was included in the bill! (Not buying in DC? You can still take advantage of the $7500 first time buyer "credit" (really an interest free loan) until July 9, 2009.)

First Time Home Buyer Class Now Scheduled in Montgomery County

Note> For the most recent schedule of dates for 2008 and 2009, please visit the First Time Home Buyer class page at my website. Classes will be held in Montgomery County, DC, Arlington, and elsewhere in Northern Virginia.

I am scheduled to teach another “First Time Home Buyer” seminar in Montgomery County on October 23. Please invite your friends and colleagues who currently rent to join me for this session where we will cover a recap of the market, current trends and market stats including days on market, average sales prices, and inventory levels. We'll also discuss the impact of the banking system collapse and bailout, the home purchase process and common pitfalls, financing basics (including interest rates, points, fees, and closing costs), and a how to get started checklist. Details are as follows:

Date(s):
Thursday, October 23rd (DATE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED Oct 16)
registration required

Logistics:
7:30 – 8:45 pm
Location: 930 Wayne Avenue, Silver Spring MD 20910
Metro: Red Line/Silver Spring

Cost: There is no obligation, and the session is FREE, but registration is required by emailing me at Katie@katiewethman.com or leaving me a voicemail at (703) 847-3336. Seating is limited.

Real Estate Market Update - Montgomery County, MD

A review of the current Montgomery County market statistics confirms what most people already know: it's still a buyer's market. Inventory is up almost 15%, and median price is down to $410,000, about 8.5% from May 2007. Number of sales is down 33% from 2007, and days on market is up 24% from a year ago.
(Click the image to enlarge)

Does this mean buyers should wait? Maybe. As always, it depends on your personal circumstances. However, with the passage of time comes the uncertainty in the lending market. Just in the past year, we've seen the elimination of 100%, 95%, and even 90% financing in many cases, meaning much larger down payments for buyers. We've seen higher interest rates, stricter credit requirements, and fewer loan options. Though FHA has become a viable option thanks to higher limits in our area, the loan limit of $729K remains temporary through the end of 2008.

Waiting might bring lower prices, but with the looming threat of inflation, high rates become more and more likely, and unless you have large cash reserves AND outstanding credit, changes in credit guidelines may surprise you (would anyone be surprised if 20% down payment requirements again became the norm given how badly banks were burned by defaults??)

Further, market statistics may be lulling buyers into a false sense of security that time is on their side. Similar to Arlington (see my 2007 Post: Some Sellers Do Get It, and Get It in 30 Days) the average days on market in Montgomery County of 103 is very misleading, and buyers may be fooled into thinking they have plenty of time to think about whether or not to make an offer on that house that they love.

(Click the image to enlarge)

A review of the successful sales in May reveals that over 1/3 of the homes that sold were on the market less than 30 days, and almost 2/3 were on the market less than 90! Then, as with every market in our area, there are the homes with sellers that drop and drop and drop the price to what is eventually the 'correct' price, and they sell sometime in or after the 4th month.

As I've mentioned before, once a buyer sees 10-12 homes in a given neighborhood, it becomes pretty easy for one to identify the 'value priced' homes, that is, that 1 in 3 that will sell quickly. The issue for buyers is that all the other circling buyers out there recognize it too, and at least some of them will jump on the opportunity when they see it.

Montgomery County is a big place, and it's unfair to paint the entire area with one brush. Contact me to discuss the neighborhood you have your eye on, and to see whether it's one that is following the trend, or whether waiting may not bring as much benefit as you hope. After all, an average is made up of points higher and points lower--see where your dream neighborhood falls in the range.

Interested in learning more? I will be teaching a free, one-house first time home buyer class at Montgomery County Library on July 31st at 7:30. We will be covering a general market overview in addition to the mechanics of the home buying process, including tips and tricks. There is no cost to attend, but registration is required. Contact me to sign up.