Washington DC Regional Market Updates

Existing home sales across the nation took a surprise jump in December, but most experts say that trend (nationwide) is unlikely to continue given further economic decline. Moody's, however, is optimistic: claiming that 2009 is the "bottom."

Our local economy and flow of investment dollars continues to outperform the nation's averages.

Forbes recently named DC as one of the best places to buy real estate right now, and the Association of Foreign Investors also named DC as #1 on its list of top global cities for investment.

Where there is money and investment, there are jobs, and where there are jobs, there are people that need homes, whether rental or purchase. Here are some of the headlines this month indicating continued investment in our area.

• Hilton Hotels just "checked in" to Fairfax, bringing investment and jobs with it.
• Northern Virginia is prepping to aggressively go after its share of stimulus dollars with its lengthy list of "shovel ready projects"
• The Montgomery County Council moved another step closer to building the Purple line linking Bethesda and New Carrollton

Ready to start your search for a home in the DC or Northern Virginia area? Consider attending one of my free first time home buyer classes - details are here. Or start searching for homes in the MLS here.

Thinking of selling? Contact me to to discuss the impact these developments might have on your home's value!

Finding an Investment Property in Northern Virginia

As prices plummet, some solid investment opportunities are starting to emerge…but how do you identify good investment properties?

Step 1: Identify some target neighborhoods.

- The first thing to do is to consider long term (e.g., 10 years) appreciation potential. Think about area employment (and more importantly where those employers are—commuting time is a big factor). Also think about long term demographic shifts like BRAC, as well as infrastructure projects like new metro stations or light rail lines.
- Consider the neighborhood. Ideally you want to find the lone problem house in a great neighborhood, but that’s easier said than done. Also consider neighborhoods that previously had been more desirable in terms of age, location, and home condition, but perhaps were hit hard by this recent wave of foreclosures.
- Consider the price range – While you hope to ultimately find a property that will be cash flow positive, you nonetheless have to front the money to buy it, and getting a loan these days isn’t easy, especially for investors. Financing remains a problem, and lenders require investors to put 30% down, plus closing costs of about 3%. Interest rates run about a percentage point higher than owner occupied properties. Figure out how much cash you’re willing to put into the property, what you can qualify for in a mortgage, and back into a price range from there.
- Look at rents the neighborhood can command. Once you identify a few target neighborhoods, begin collecting rent data. The best place to collect rent data is on Craigs List in addition to the MLS. This is because many landlords conduct the process themselves and so the listings are never in the MLS. You also can’t be sure how aggressive a listing agent was in procuring a renter, which may skew the price. If they put it into the MLS but then never on Craigs List (by far the more popular site for finding renters), then it’s likely the rents there are lower than what the market actually commands. Unfortunately there’s no easy way to gather historical Craigs List data – you just need to keep watching and see which rentals seem to go quickly. Consider calling some of the landlords to ask whether they’ve had a lot of responses.

Step 2: Identify some target properties

- Short Sales & Foreclosures are a great opportunity because you can be patient. (See my post on the challenges of timing a foreclosure transaction here and the frustrations of shorts sales that never close here.) While an owner occupant doesn’t have the luxury of time and can get frustrated with all the problems of these transactions, investors can go with the flow since their timing is more flexible. And that flexibility pays off by getting properties for less money.
- Consider the home’s condition and your level of expertise in doing or managing renovations. Many of the short sales and foreclosures on the market today come at bargain prices, but require everything from heavy cosmetic work to kitchen and bath remodels to mold remediation. Very few properties in the attractive price ranges are move-in ready, but there's a lot of upside for people not afraid of elbow grease and with the right handyman connections.
- Be patient. You may need to wait for the right house at the right price. Set up an alert so that you can be ready to jump on a property that meets your investment needs as soon as it comes on the market—you can be sure other investors are circling and waiting for the right opportunity as well!

I’ve seen some inside the beltway single family homes below $400K and townhouses in under $300 in areas that I feel have great long term potential given our area's strong job market and expected government growth (see this post on the best place to live in a recession here, and article on the bailout being a boon to our local economy here.)

In another post I’ll cover how to look at cash flows for an investment property.

I’m working with several investors and have already previewed many homes that fit the criteria above. Call or email me to set up an appointment to discuss investing opportunities!

Buying an Investment Property in Northern Virginia

The Washington Posts' Express paper had a special Home Buyer's Guide this past Wednesday, and I was honored to be asked for my thoughts on buying investment properties.

During my conversation with the author, I noted that prices inside the Beltway--areas that are optimal for finding renters--have not dropped to the extent people may think, and thus finding an investment property that is cash flow positive is difficult. Having said that, it's not impossible to find a good property with long term potential, and if you're looking out side the Beltway, there are deals to be had in terms of price (though finding renters may be more difficult than with close-in areas). The challenge right now is in obtaining financing, as I and Will Gaines, of Access National Mortgage, noted here.

» DOUBLE DOWN: Expect to break the piggy bank open — wide open. "You usually need a minimum of 15 percent down for an investment property, and, ideally, for good pricing, it should be 20 percent," says Will Gaines, senior loan officer with Access National Mortgage in Reston, Va. "To get your very most competitive pricing, you really need to have 30 percent to put down."

» DOUBLE TROUBLE: Don't blame the banks for tighter restrictions. "The private mortgage insurers got burned so, so bad in the past few years, and they're reluctant to provide insurance," warns Katie Wethman of Long & Foster. She says they're especially wary of insuring rental properties because "if a borrower falls on hard times, they're more likely to skip a payment on an investment property than one they live in." That said, she advises borrowers to come up with a big chunk of cold, hard cash to sweeten the deal; the less credit you need, the more likely you are to get the loan you want.

» DOUBLE UP: Count on your friends. "I see more younger people going in together to buy investment properties," Gaines says. "That way, they can share the down payment and spread out the risk if they're without a renter for a period of time." Be sure to have a game plan for buying each other out in case one of you is ready to cry "Uncle!" before the other.

If you have the cash for a larger down payment, and the patience to ride out the downturn, there are investment opportunities out there. In particular, being flexible on timing and having a bit of cash for repairs makes short sales and foreclosures more of an opportunity for investors (versus someone who has to move before their lease is up: read more on my foreclosure risk post on timing a transaction.)

What else do you need to consider when searching for an investment property? Long term demographic trends, price to rent ratios, competing inventory (i.e., apartments), cash flow, and a host of other factors. If you're considering an investment property and need an advisor for your transaction, contact me to set up a meeting.

Thinking of Buying an Investment Property? Take This Class.

I don't usually put in plugs for classes or professionals--other than for myself, of course ;) -- but I want to highly recommend a class taught through Arlington County's Adult Education Program called "Landlording." I took this class a few years ago and it was an excellent overview of managing residential properties, tenant and landlord rights, and the Virginia Landlord Tenant Act. A must for anyone considering renting out their home, or buying an investment property.

There are two offerings, both on Monday nights from 6:30 to 9:30. The first is on Sept 22 and the other is Nov 17. Cost is $49 for Arlington residents and $60 for non-residents (and discounts for seniors). You can look at the catalog, and get details on registration, at the Arlington Adult Education site here.

Thinking of buying an investment property? I have some suggestions on neighborhoods that are great values right now, with even more long term potential. Contact me to discuss the pros and cons of owning investment property.