Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

It's tough to interpret the market today.

The Good: Inventory in Northern Virginia remained below the "balanced" mark of 6 months for the second month in a row, as sales increased. The PMI Mortgage Insurance Company has released its latest index which indicates ranks the liklihood of declining markets across the US. Our area got a score of 21.4 which, for you glass-half-empty folks, means there is a 21.4% chance that prices will be lower in two years. For the glass-half-full folks: they predict almost an 80% chance that prices in our area will rise over the next two years.

Even Loudoun County, which was hit significantly harder than close-in markets like Arlington and Alexandria, showed significant improvement, with the highest number of monthly sales since December 2005. Sterling Park, with the highest rate of foreclosures in Loudoun, had a year over year sales increase of 94%, and inventory across the County is down 25%!

Barron's has noted that numbers may indicate we are nearing the bottom.

The Bad: Case-Schiller continued to report declines in our area: 1% decline this quarter, and 15% year over year. Predictions continue to roll in for slowed growth and an underperforming economy as consumer confidence and home prices slide.

The Ugly: Foreclosures remained high, though buying one is not for the feint of heart. Here is a good article to guide your expectations, and another with some tips on buying an REO property, and don't forget to read my blog post series on foreclosure risks as well.

So should we believe the bad news or the good? The bottom line is that all of it is true! The decision to buy or sell a home is one that depends on your situation, timing, finances, and neighborhood. Don't trust that decision to a single headline. Give me a call to discuss if it makes sense for you.

North Arlington Condo Market Update - July 2008

Zip Codes 22201 and 22203 (includes Ballston, Virginia Square, Clarendon)

	1 BR Units	2BR Units
ACTIVE LISTINGS as of Jul 22
Average List Price	$353,716	$518,239
Number of Active Listings	49	74
Average Property DOM(P) – Actives	69	90
SOLD LISTINGS
Average Sold Price for Previous Month (does not include seller subsidies)	$346,651	$452,120
Number of Sold Listings in Previous Month	26	16
Average Property DOM(P) - Solds	54	79

Absorption Rate (Balanced Market = 6)

1 Bedroom Condos = 1.9 Months

2 Bedroom Condos = 4.6 Months

* Statistics exclude retirement communities

Click here to see the previous North Arlington Condo Market Update

Source: MRIS data as of 07/22/2008. All data deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Northern Virginia Real Estate Statistics - June 2008

June's Northern Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Fairfax City, and Falls Church) inventory and home sales proved to be an interesting story: Despite the spring timing, inventory dropped (slightly) for the first time since December 2007...



While sales simultaneously rose for the 5th consecutive month.



For the second month in a row, inventory has dropped below the "balanced" level of 6 months. Is this just a seasonal bump? Whether yes or no, a drop in inventory means fewer choices for buyers, and I can tell you from first hand experience that a lot of the inventory out there is junk that most people would never consider buying. So the market may present fewer choices than you think if you're serious about finding a home.

With the Fall right around the corner (though it's 90 degrees out as I write this), we can expect lower prices, but we can also expect even fewer choices. So you might get a great deal, but on a home that's already been picked over by all the Spring buyers.

There's a 'sweet spot' in the early Fall though, where there are homes on the market with sellers who are getting increasingly anxious about the end of the season -- I believe buyers will have a lot of opportunity and leverage in the August October timeframe. Contact me to discuss whether this is the right time for you to begin your search, and whether the neighborhoods you're interested in have rising or falling inventory.

PMI Risk Index: 80% Chance of Rising Prices in Next Two Years

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co released its latest U.S. Market Risk Index, which ranks likelihood of declining prices for the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). PMI Mortgage Insurance Co is one of the largest providers of PMI in the US, so you better believe they spend a good chunk of time studying the market, prices, and defaults.
The bad news is that the decline in national prices accelerated in the first quarter of 2008. The more interesting news for our area is that the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria MSA had a risk rank of just 3 (of 5) and risk index score of 21.4, down from 29.1 last year.

This risk index reflects the probability that prices will be lower in two years. So if you're planning on waiting to buy because you think prices will drop, this report is estimating that there is a 1 in 5 chance that you will make out better if you wait two years; said another way, there is a 4 in 5 chance that prices will go up. This is no doubt tied to our area's continuing low unemployment rate of 3.6%, the lowest of all 50 MSAs.

Buyers: 80% chance prices will go up...you might want to start your search soon.

Sellers: Hold on a little longer...your odds are improving.

Read the full PMI report report here.

Real Estate Market Update - Montgomery County, MD

A review of the current Montgomery County market statistics confirms what most people already know: it's still a buyer's market. Inventory is up almost 15%, and median price is down to $410,000, about 8.5% from May 2007. Number of sales is down 33% from 2007, and days on market is up 24% from a year ago.
(Click the image to enlarge)

Does this mean buyers should wait? Maybe. As always, it depends on your personal circumstances. However, with the passage of time comes the uncertainty in the lending market. Just in the past year, we've seen the elimination of 100%, 95%, and even 90% financing in many cases, meaning much larger down payments for buyers. We've seen higher interest rates, stricter credit requirements, and fewer loan options. Though FHA has become a viable option thanks to higher limits in our area, the loan limit of $729K remains temporary through the end of 2008.

Waiting might bring lower prices, but with the looming threat of inflation, high rates become more and more likely, and unless you have large cash reserves AND outstanding credit, changes in credit guidelines may surprise you (would anyone be surprised if 20% down payment requirements again became the norm given how badly banks were burned by defaults??)

Further, market statistics may be lulling buyers into a false sense of security that time is on their side. Similar to Arlington (see my 2007 Post: Some Sellers Do Get It, and Get It in 30 Days) the average days on market in Montgomery County of 103 is very misleading, and buyers may be fooled into thinking they have plenty of time to think about whether or not to make an offer on that house that they love.

(Click the image to enlarge)

A review of the successful sales in May reveals that over 1/3 of the homes that sold were on the market less than 30 days, and almost 2/3 were on the market less than 90! Then, as with every market in our area, there are the homes with sellers that drop and drop and drop the price to what is eventually the 'correct' price, and they sell sometime in or after the 4th month.

As I've mentioned before, once a buyer sees 10-12 homes in a given neighborhood, it becomes pretty easy for one to identify the 'value priced' homes, that is, that 1 in 3 that will sell quickly. The issue for buyers is that all the other circling buyers out there recognize it too, and at least some of them will jump on the opportunity when they see it.

Montgomery County is a big place, and it's unfair to paint the entire area with one brush. Contact me to discuss the neighborhood you have your eye on, and to see whether it's one that is following the trend, or whether waiting may not bring as much benefit as you hope. After all, an average is made up of points higher and points lower--see where your dream neighborhood falls in the range.

Interested in learning more? I will be teaching a free, one-house first time home buyer class at Montgomery County Library on July 31st at 7:30. We will be covering a general market overview in addition to the mechanics of the home buying process, including tips and tricks. There is no cost to attend, but registration is required. Contact me to sign up.

How Do I Start My Home Search?

If you read my recent post "Why I May Not Be Able to Represent You" then you know that it's imperative that you choose an agent early in your home search process. But what happens when you meet with an agent for the first time?

Everyone is different of course, but here is a general idea of how many of my first meetings with clients go. Typically, we'll spend about an hour to go over the basics:

1) Go over the home purchase process.

2) Get an idea of needs vs. wants (i.e., 'must haves') - Bring any listings that you are already interested in.

3) Discuss neighborhoods, what you get for the money, etc.

4) Discuss the financing process. Before we go out to look at properties, you will need to be pre-approved by a lender. If you have already spoken with a lender by this point, bring your Good Faith Estimate(s) and I will go over some key points on them.

We'll also briefly discuss buyer agency agreements, and our mutual obligations.

Depending on the situation, we may even go out to tour properties following this initial meeting. If not, then we'll work together to identify some properties that might fit your needs. If/when we have a few properties (about 6-8) that you wish to view, we'll set up a block of time that we can go see them.

I find that most buyers need to see 8-10 properties (through a combination of open houses and agent tours) in a given neighborhood before they have a good idea of what they like and what they get for the money. Typically during our first few weeks working together we get you "caught up" to homes that are already on the market. Following that, it's easy to keep up to date and see what's new via open houses and brief (1-3 property) tours.

The search process may take longer than you think, though it varies widely by person. The search process itself takes anywhere from a few weeks to a few months. I've had buyers make an offer after just one or two days of looking--it's part focus, part preparation, and part luck.

From contract to settlement (for loan processing, appraisal, home inspections, etc.) then takes 30-60 days additional. You should count on at least 3 months from start to finish.

Shoot me an email today if you'd like to discuss starting your search!

Housing Bill: Senate Amendments Create Buying Incentives

The senate started piling on amendments to a proposed housing bill that, if passed, would add some interesting incentives to buy. Of particular note is a proposed $7000 tax credit (not a deduction--a credit!) to anyone buying a foreclosed home (see my post: "I want to buy a foreclosure.") A credit that size would indeed compensate for some of the risks involved in buying a bank owned property (see beginning of series here.)

For people in a 30ish% marginal percent tax bracket, a $7000 credit is equivalent to about $23,000 of income tax-free--that is 23,333* 30% tax rate = $7000 in your pocket!

Not interested in a foreclosure? That's okay--Senator Ben Cardin wants to give a temporary $7000 credit to all first time home buyers--similar to the measure that has spurred a lot of first time buyers in DC for years--as well. (TBD on whether first time buyers who purchase a foreclosure get $14,000.)

We'll have to keep an eye on this to see if it passes through as-is, but if I were on the fence about buying, $7000 is a nice chunk of change for the government to chip in.

Update 04/08/08: The House plan is proposing an $8000 first time buyer credit, and is good for the next 12 months. The credit would need to be repaid after 15 years. Stay tuned -- this is destined for committee before being passed. So far, this is just a bill, not a law...remember the classic ditty: I'm just a bill...

Read more: Figure out your marginal tax rate, that is, the tax paid on the last dollar earned.

Read more: Risk of buying a foreclosure series starts here.

Read more: Tax Tips for Homebuyers

Read more: Local Classes for First Time Homebuyers

What is the State of The Housing Market? (Multiple Choice)

What is the State of the Housing Market? Please choose the best answer.

A. Looks like the start of a recovery. NAR Q3 2007 Report indicates roughly half of US markets show an increase in median home prices.

B. About flat, plus or minus 1%...OFHEO reports Home Prices down 0.4% in Q3 2007

C. We have years of decline ahead of us…start keeping cash--strike that, better make it Euros--in your mattress, folks! Case Shiller reports “The Sky is Falling, The Sky is Falling!” (Ok, that wasn’t really a headline attributed to them, but that’s basically the message in all of their press releases…pick which ever press release you want.)

Ok, pencils down. You all get a gold star. No matter which one you choose, you're correct. Why? It comes down to the methodology.

The National Association of REALTORS® statistics captures the median value of home transactions that come from all of the Multiple Listing Services nationwide. They cover all home sales at all price points, and release data in a relatively timely manner.

OFHEO, the government agency that works with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, also releases its quarterly analyses. They cover 287 markets, but because they are primarily concerned with the conforming loan market, the track only resales that meet that criteria (until recently, loans under $417,000. See my post on Conforming Loan Limits.) It also includes refinancings, which arguably have more generous appraisals. FYI, OFHEO does typically include an attempt at reconciling their numbers to Case Shiller. Because CS is a privately owned index, the exact methodology is impossible to duplicate.)

Case-Shiller, which is probably the most widely quoted analysis, covers only 20 US markets BUT includes ALL price points and loan types—exotics, sub-prime, and limited documentation. Of course the 20 metro areas covered are very large ones, which typically have more expensive homes (anyone ever compare a 4BR colonial on an acre in North Arlington to a 4BR colonial on an acre in Cleveland?) It excludes 13 states completely and has limited information on 29 others—so incomplete or missing data from 42 states! It also weights transactions—a $700,000 home gets weighted twice as heavily in their index as a $350,000 home. But isn’t a 10% decline a 10% decline, regardless of the baseline? Apparently not.

Dramatic headlines sell papers--remember all the 2004-2005 headlines screaming Buy! Buy, Before You're Priced Out Forever! Doesn't sound like a great idea in hindsight, does it?) While I’m definitely not saying that those in the industry can’t spin stats better than a Maytag, I did find this little tidbit from the NAR pretty interesting:

“Another factor that rarely gets attention is that Dr. Shiller, a Yale professor, has a side business in Chicago. His index is used at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for hedging housing futures values. The more hedging of bets that occur, the more profits go into Dr. Shiller’s bank account. And more hedging of the bets will take place if people believe there will be a crash in housing values. So naturally he has a financial incentive to “scare” the market.”

So what’s a buyer to do? Whom to believe? First, understand the methodology and if one matches up with your situation, pay closer attention to that one. Are you in one CS’s 20 markets and looking to use a no doc loan for a $600K home? CS may be the better measure for you. Are you looking to buy below $417,000? OFHEO may be a better report for you. Want the broadest measure possible? Use NAR. I find that with statistics, perception is reality, and no one calls a market bottom until it’s months behind us, and in the meantime, life goes on. If you’re buying a home, as opposed to an investment property, then do what's best for you, pick a time that works with your life, plan to stay there at least 3-5 years, and buy only what you can afford.

Read more: See my post from last year on Yes, the Market is Down 7% AND up 1%

Read more: from one of my favorite mortgage blogs on spin in the mortgage industry headlines: How Ignoring Adjectives Can Improve Your Understanding of Mortgages

Read more in the Carnival of Real Estate, which included this post. They make the extremely important observation that all real estate is local, so national trends don't mean very much in the first place! Read my posts making similar points here and here. This one is also interesting to look at the very different foreclosure stats, even from county to county, in our area.

Sign up for my newsletter to keep up with DC area trends

Sign up for a first time buyer seminar to learn more about the market

WSJ: "Beyond Auctions" Article on Buying Foreclosures

There's a fantastic article today online in the WSJ: "Beyond Auctions: Ways to Buy Foreclosed Homes."

It explains why there are actually very few bargains to be had in foreclosure auctions, and why buyers (especially first time buyers) need to instead focus on bank owned property (REO). There's a good list of do's and don'ts too. It goes on to say--and I find this to be true--that "Some of the banks will sit [on a property] until they hit their target number -- they may get 20, 30, 40 offers before they're ready to take one....Potential buyers should...put in a realistic bid. You can't expect to bid 50% of the asking price and hope to get it."

Of course there are tons of foreclosures in the Northern Virginia area as a whole, but painting the entire area with one brush stroke can be dangerous. Take a closer look at the foreclosure stats below.


















On the bottom, you can see where Washington, DC, falls compared to other major metropolitan areas. But even that average (about 88 per 10,000 homes) is misleading...Looking at the top part of the chart, I've broken it out by county. You can easily see that DC, Arlington, and Alexandria are a very different market than PG, Stafford, Loudoun, and PW. Are there parts of Arlington that have more foreclosures? Of course. But the moral of the story is to make your decisions based on your specific situation--where you want to live, what type of property you want, etc....and not by a perceived "bargains" of price or availability. You may be surprised at the details behind those "opportunities."

Read more: Blog Post - "I want to buy a foreclosure."

Data Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Read more: Alexandria Real Estate News

Read more: Falls Church Real Estate News

FAQ: Seller Subsidies/Contributions to Closing Costs

I'm often asked how seller subsidies, (also known as “seller contributions” or “closing cost assistance,” work. When a buyer purchases a property, he can expect closing costs of about 3% of the transaction price. (This varies widely by jurisdiction—consult a local REALTOR for more details.) The closing costs are a combination of (1) fees to lenders, brokers, appraisers, and attorneys, and (2) prepaid expenses, e.g., paid-in-advance property taxes or hazard insurance. Many of the prepaid charges vary depending on the day and month in which you settle. For example, if you settle on the 25^th of the month, you typically pre-pay 5 days of interest, whereas if you settle on the 10^th of the month, you typically pre-pay 20 days of interest. For this reason, if a buyer needs to keep closing costs low, it sometimes pays to negotiate an end-of-month settlement. As a general rule, buyers cannot finance closing costs, so a buyer needs to show up at settlement with funds for both their down-payment as well as their closing costs.

Closing costs come off of the seller’s “net” or the amount of proceeds after expenses. Let’s say the seller is listing his home for $450,000 and his selling expenses (fees, etc.) are equal to 8% of the transaction. If he were to receive his full asking price, his “net” would be 92% of the total, or $414,000. In this example, the buyer would need to pay $13,500 in closing costs (3%) + his down-payment.

One negotiation tactic that is very common in this buyer’s market is to ask the seller to pay a buyer’s closing cost ($13,500 in our example), so that the buyer minimizes the amount of cash they need to spend to get into the house. The buyer may actually have the cash, but might prefer to hold onto it as savings, or apply to his down-payment, remodel a bathroom, to buy furniture, or whatever. Tip: You may see “seller contribution” clearly advertised in a listing—don’t let this drive your decision too much—in this market, almost any seller would be happy to contribute to your closing costs whether they advertise it or not. By stating it in a listing, though, in essence these sellers are simply saying “I’m willing to take less than list price.”

Now, getting back to our example, let’s say that a buyer wants to make an offer on that $450,000 home, but after discussing it with his agent, wants to pay only $430,000. (And for purposes of this example, let’s assume that the seller wants to “net” the fair market value of $430,000.) The buyer may offer less, or may ask for closing cost assistance, or a combination. So if the buyer wants his closing costs paid for, he might offer $443,500 and ask for a seller contribution to closing costs of $13,500. The seller then nets $430,000. The buyer would borrow the full $443,500—in essence “financing” his closing costs across the life of the mortgage—but would only need to write a check for the down-payment at closing.

Taking it one step further, if a buyer were to ask for both a price concession AND closing cost assistance, the seller would apply both to his net. In our example, it’s unlikely the seller would accept an offer of $430,000 AND provide a full $13,500 contribution because his net would only be $416,500 rather than the market value of $430,000.

From a buyer’s perspective, asking for closing costs is a good way to minimize cash out-of-pocket in the short term, but the trade off is that the buyer is paying interest (via the higher mortgage) for potentially years. Be careful, though—many lenders have a limit of how much a seller can contribute; they want you to have some “skin in the game” in today’s market! Additionally, review your contract carefully—sometimes any excess contribution is returned to the seller.

From the seller’s perspective, the financial difference of giving a price concession or a closing cost contribution is usually immaterial—the impact to the net is essentially the same. (The only difference is that any fees that are based on a percentage of the transaction price will be slightly higher; in our example, they would be based on the $443,500, and not the net of $430,000. Still likely a very small price to pay to get a buyer to the table!)

2008 Regional Outlook: "Fundamentals Sound"

George Mason University has updated their 2008 Outlook for the Washington, DC, metro area. It’s fairly consistent with previous presentations (perhaps slightly more positive, in my opinion.) Here are the key findings:

• Local job market continues to be very strong, with Washington, DC, having the lowest unemployment rate of the largest 15 job markets (US average = 4.4%, DC = 3.1%.) (See slide 5.) As I have commented here before, the job market is a great indicator of the housing market to come—people go where the jobs are, and they need a place to live. Because this area doesn’t have particularly high vacancy rates in rentals, that translates into pressure on rents (thus providing an incentive for renters to buy), or more demand for homes.
• This area has significantly fewer foreclosures (as measured per 10,000 units) than most large metropolitan areas in Florida, California, and the rust belt. DC (22), Arlington (27), and Alexandria (34) have the fewest foreclosures of any local county. (See slide 13) Think about those numbers for a minute. For every 10,000 homes in the District, just 22 are in foreclosure. This is consistent with other posts I’ve made about this area having two different markets—close in neighborhoods versus outlying suburbs.
• Days on market has increased significantly. (However, this can easily be misinterpreted—see my post on “Some Sellers Get It—And Get It In 30 Days!” Total units sold have declined (duh). Total active listings have increased (again, duh.)
• Percentage change in inventories has slowed dramatically and is consistent with 2003 levels. (See slide 23). We still have quite a backlog to work through, but at least for now it doesn’t appear to be getting any worse.
• Outlook: “Fundamentals are sound, 2008 will be moderately better than 2007.” (And by “better,” of course, they mean better for sellers.) “Housing prices will be flat until at least Spring & will be a mixed story across the region—some jurisdictions will be negative and others showing increases.”

So in summary, all real estate is local, and the DC market is, all things considered, not a bad place to be right now.

(If you found this interesting, see my related post: When will the DC real estate market turnaround?)