Showing posts with label inventory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inventory. Show all posts

Saturday, June 13, 2009

State of the DC Area Real Estate Market: June 2009

The Spring market is hopping, but some recent changes are making it difficult to predict what's around the corner. Here's what's going on in the local real estate world:

Interest Rates Jump: Mortgage rates took a significant jump in the past few weeks. The short story is that optimism about the economy combined with fears about inflation are pushing rates up. But if you want the long story, you can read more about the relationship between the bond markets and MBS markets here.

Foreclosures and short sales continue to be a very active segment. Banks have finally figured out that the trick to selling foreclosures quickly is to price them ridiculously low and get a bidding war going. It's not uncommon to have dozens of offers in during the first few days for entry-level price points ($200-300k). Short sales continue to be a source of frustration for buyers, as noted in this good NPR story.

The area's inventory remains flat (Arlington and DC) to declining (NoVA)
--check out the significant decline in Northern Virginia inventory here.
New Appraisal Code Scuttles Deals: The new Home Valuation Code of Conduct was implemented in May, and is wreaking havoc with deals. This Code created intermediaries to manage the appraisal process, and some argue that quality has dropped. Many appraisals are coming in low, opening the door to a secondary round of price negotiations in many transactions.

Monetization of Tax Credit:
Of significant note to first time buyers is the emergence of programs that will allow a buyer to "monetize" the $8000 tax credit. VHDA has developed a program to structure a second trust of $8000 with no principal or interest payments due during the first 12 months. Details are still evolving, but it is expected that a buyer could use this $8000 second trust as part of their downpayment.

If you are a first time buyer hoping to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit - start your search NOW! The lack of "good" inventory may make it difficult to find something that fits your needs and your price range. Settlements must occur by November 30 to file for the credit, and with the current volume of lending and refinancing banks are backed up. No doubt this backlog will increase for both lenders and settlement companies as we approach November 30 - plan ahead! Contact me to start your search - I'd love to help you!

And finally, just for fun:
For all you Arlingtonians and those who want to be an Arlingtonian -- check out this rap.

As always, please let me know if I can do anything to help you or your friends with your real estate needs.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Northern Virginia Inventory Sees MASSIVE Drops

Update 5/9/09: Looks like I've got some investigating to do - the final MRIS numbers are published (updated graphs now available at my website here - click on the "Market Stats" in the left sidebar) and they aren't even close to the "live" data I ran on the last day of the month. Not sure what's going on -- seriously, how can hundreds of listings be not there on the last day of the month but then appear retroactively 9 days later? I'll look into it and post results here when I get them. The short story is that inventory didn't drop in most cases--just a tiny increase of about 2% over last month for NoVA, for example. Still surprising but not nearly the big story the initial data hinted at. Contracts are up about 12% over last month, so the buyers are definitely biting! Obviously with an increase in contracts disproportional to the slight increase in inventory, it still indicates a shift in the market, just perhaps not that dramatic a shift as originally indicated.

In the meantime, here are some excellent charts detailing real estate inventory levels that illustrate my points and appear to be using the "live" data just as I had.

Original Post:
This. Is. Big. News. Typically in the Spring (from February through June) we see run ups in inventory as sellers prepare their homes for market. The final numbers aren't out just yet, but I think both buyers and sellers are going to be shocked by April's real estate statistics.

Let's take a look at the Arlington numbers I ran from today's MRIS (the consortium that owns our area's multiple listing service.) The spring run up looks like this for January through April: 875 - 925 - 986 --------and 793 for April! What?! That is the lowest number of homes available since February 2007. A 21% DROP in inventory in Arlington?! During SPRING?

And Northern Virginia as a whole: 7545 - 7811 - 8069 ------ and 5435!
A WHOPPING 33% DROP and
the lowest number of homes for sale in NoVA since August 2005! Remember August 2005? When buyers were running around bidding things up like crazy because there weren't enough homes to go around?

What's going on?? First, buyers are getting it! Low prices, the lowest interest rates in 50 years, and the $8000 first time buyer tax credit have them out in droves. Just in the past week I had 3 of 4 buyers who submitted offers get outbid on properties in various locations.

To add insult to inventory, potential sellers are waiting to put their homes on the market because they don't want to have to take low offers. Much of the inventory, especially in the suburbs, is "distressed" (foreclosures and short sales) and many are in such poor condition that they will not sell for a very, very long time. So the level of "good" inventory (that is, will realistically sell within the next few months) is even lower than the numbers show. Homeowners who are on the fence about selling don't want to be lumped in with distressed comps, so aren't putting their homes on the market.

Finally, the 'moratorium' on foreclosures in the first quarter contributed to a lack of new distressed inventory coming on the market. But if there's another wave coming, it's not in the pipeline yet: a review of "preforeclosure" filings in Arlington listed just 73 properties, and Fairfax County showed 1000 (a big number, no doubt, but not enough to make up for the 2500 drop in inventory from March to April.)

What are the implications of this?

Buyers:
Unless there's a big wave in May, you're going to have a lot less to choose from, especially if you want something that is 'move in ready.' Less inventory means more competition for the 'good' listings -- expect to pay closer to list price for those, and be ready to move quickly when you see one you like. Chances other other people are circling it too. Hope for a big bump in the coming weeks - otherwise it may be a tough road if you're trying to buy before November 30 to take advantage of the tax credit. Typically inventory peaks in June, with another much smaller bump in Sept/Oct.

Get started with your search:
Sign up to attend a free first time home buyer class or search the MLS

Sellers: If you are on the fence about selling, go ahead and get it on the market asap, especially if your home is a good option for a first time buyer. Make sure you put your best foot forward with some sprucing up, staging, multiple photos taken by a professional, a home warranty, and an extensive web presence as part of a comprehensive marketing plan. And it still needs to be priced right, of course. If you're wondering what the comps are for your neighborhood, contact me or visit my sellers resource center.


Source for all data: MRIS as of 5/1/2009. Data deemed accurate but not guaranteed

Saturday, January 10, 2009

December 2008 Market Stats Available


MRIS (the consortium that owns our regional multiple listing service) has published the December 2008 stats, and I've updated graphs at my website (click on links below).

Arlington Market Stats - Arlington continues to post strong numbers. Only 4.91 months of inventory available, and of the homes that sold in December, an amazing 40% sold in under 1 month! Days on market held steady at 70, and average price increased slightly from the prior month.

Northern Virginia Market Stats - Of note here is the 37% increase in sales in December vs November, and an 8% decline in inventory, bringing the months of inventory down to 5.09 (6 months is considered a balanced market.) December 2007 was a 7.3 months inventory level.

DC Market Stats - Average price dropped significantly from prior month and prior year, which perhaps contributed to the amazing 34% increase in sales in December over November. And when it's good, it's good...almost 40% of the homes that sold in December had contracts in under one month.

Montgomery County Market Stats - MoCo continues to be a strong buyer's market, with the average price almost 20% below the same month in 2007. And the buyers responded--sales increased 22% over the prior month.

The big picture: Still a buyer's market in terms of price and selection, but drops in inventory and huge increases in contracts means the buyers are out there, circling, and ready to jump on good properties quickly if necessary.

If you're thinking about listing your home for sale, contact me to discuss how we can make your home one of those that sells in 30 days. Or sign up for a free Selling Your Home class.

If you're a buyer, give me a ring to talk about the stats in the specific neighborhoods you're looking. Or sign up for a free first time home buyer class.

Search the MLS

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

North Arlington Condo Market Update - July 2008

Zip Codes 22201 and 22203 (includes Ballston, Virginia Square, Clarendon)

1 BR Units

2BR Units

ACTIVE LISTINGS as of Jul 22

Average List Price

$353,716

$518,239

Number of Active Listings

49

74

Average Property DOM(P) – Actives

69

90

SOLD LISTINGS

Average Sold Price for Previous Month (does not include seller subsidies)

$346,651

$452,120

Number of Sold Listings in Previous Month

26

16

Average Property DOM(P) - Solds

54

79


Absorption Rate (Balanced Market = 6)

1 Bedroom Condos = 1.9 Months

2 Bedroom Condos = 4.6 Months


* Statistics exclude retirement communities

Click here to see the previous North Arlington Condo Market Update

Source: MRIS data as of 07/22/2008. All data deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Northern Virginia Real Estate Statistics - June 2008

June's Northern Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Fairfax City, and Falls Church) inventory and home sales proved to be an interesting story: Despite the spring timing, inventory dropped (slightly) for the first time since December 2007...



While sales simultaneously rose for the 5th consecutive month.



For the second month in a row, inventory has dropped below the "balanced" level of 6 months. Is this just a seasonal bump? Whether yes or no, a drop in inventory means fewer choices for buyers, and I can tell you from first hand experience that a lot of the inventory out there is junk that most people would never consider buying. So the market may present fewer choices than you think if you're serious about finding a home.

With the Fall right around the corner (though it's 90 degrees out as I write this), we can expect lower prices, but we can also expect even fewer choices. So you might get a great deal, but on a home that's already been picked over by all the Spring buyers.

There's a 'sweet spot' in the early Fall though, where there are homes on the market with sellers who are getting increasingly anxious about the end of the season -- I believe buyers will have a lot of opportunity and leverage in the August October timeframe. Contact me to discuss whether this is the right time for you to begin your search, and whether the neighborhoods you're interested in have rising or falling inventory.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Real Estate Market Update - Montgomery County, MD


A review of the current Montgomery County market statistics confirms what most people already know: it's still a buyer's market. Inventory is up almost 15%, and median price is down to $410,000, about 8.5% from May 2007. Number of sales is down 33% from 2007, and days on market is up 24% from a year ago.
(Click the image to enlarge)


Does this mean buyers should wait? Maybe. As always, it depends on your personal circumstances. However, with the passage of time comes the uncertainty in the lending market. Just in the past year, we've seen the elimination of 100%, 95%, and even 90% financing in many cases, meaning much larger down payments for buyers. We've seen higher interest rates, stricter credit requirements, and fewer loan options. Though FHA has become a viable option thanks to higher limits in our area, the loan limit of $729K remains temporary through the end of 2008.

Waiting might bring lower prices, but with the looming threat of inflation, high rates become more and more likely, and unless you have large cash reserves AND outstanding credit, changes in credit guidelines may surprise you (would anyone be surprised if 20% down payment requirements again became the norm given how badly banks were burned by defaults??)

Further, market statistics may be lulling buyers into a false sense of security that time is on their side. Similar to Arlington (see my 2007 Post: Some Sellers Do Get It, and Get It in 30 Days) the average days on market in Montgomery County of 103 is very misleading, and buyers may be fooled into thinking they have plenty of time to think about whether or not to make an offer on that house that they love.

(Click the image to enlarge)

A review of the successful sales in May reveals that over 1/3 of the homes that sold were on the market less than 30 days, and almost 2/3 were on the market less than 90! Then, as with every market in our area, there are the homes with sellers that drop and drop and drop the price to what is eventually the 'correct' price, and they sell sometime in or after the 4th month.

As I've mentioned before, once a buyer sees 10-12 homes in a given neighborhood, it becomes pretty easy for one to identify the 'value priced' homes, that is, that 1 in 3 that will sell quickly. The issue for buyers is that all the other circling buyers out there recognize it too, and at least some of them will jump on the opportunity when they see it.

Montgomery County is a big place, and it's unfair to paint the entire area with one brush. Contact me to discuss the neighborhood you have your eye on, and to see whether it's one that is following the trend, or whether waiting may not bring as much benefit as you hope. After all, an average is made up of points higher and points lower--see where your dream neighborhood falls in the range.

Interested in learning more? I will be teaching a free, one-house first time home buyer class at Montgomery County Library on July 31st at 7:30. We will be covering a general market overview in addition to the mechanics of the home buying process, including tips and tricks. There is no cost to attend, but registration is required. Contact me to sign up.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

How do you know if your listing agent is doing a good job?

I was out showing homes this weekend and I went to a community to see 3 townhouses on the same street. I reviewed the showing instructions. The first house had instructions to call a showing service, which I did, to receive the combination to the lockbox. (As an aside I HATE combo lockboxes…it’s such a disservice to the seller…there’s no record of who came by and when, and no way to tell how many people have the combination. But I digress.) The other two were labeled ‘show anytime, electronic lockbox’. I dutifully took my buyer—who, by the way, is pre-approved and ready to write an offer as soon as she sees something she likes—only to find that the two ‘electronic’ lockboxes were actually combination lockboxes. No combination listed in the MLS printout. I called both agents and got voicemail. We walked around the community for a few minutes, then left. Later that day I got a call from one of the agents with the combination. I never did hear from the second. And my client? She decided to buy somewhere else.

It’s really too bad that there isn’t a standard level of service provided to—and expected by—sellers. Here is a short list of questions to ask and ways to check up on your quality of service:

  1. Does your property have multiple pictures in the MLS? Have you looked at them? Too many times I see a picture taken with a point-and-shoot that is really a picture of the furniture rather than the room. You can’t get wide enough angles from a run-of-the-mill camera. Buyers DEMAND pictures. I work with a LOT of buyers, and they assume that something is wrong with the property if there are no pictures.
  2. Is there an electronic lockbox (this is for the seller’s safety)? Does it open properly (Ask your agent to check periodically...I tried to show one last week and the box wasn’t working so we weren’t able to get the keys.) Are there keys in it? (Yes, I’ve had this happen, too, when trying to show a property to a buyer.)
  3. Web Site – Does your property have its own website (e.g., www.1225NStreet.com) These sites aren’t for search engine ranking, but rather for your marketing materials—the brochures, the open house ads, the signs. Buyers want as much information as possible. Buyers DO look at these sites (my listings get dozens of hits per day), and they show them to their friends for opinions, and I want buyers spending as much time as possible looking at information about my listings versus others.
  4. Open Houses – I’m a big fan of open houses. (See my open house post here.) Any agent who says “No one buys off an open house” is WRONG. I’ve had several of my buyer clients buy a house that they saw for the first time when it was held open, and I sold one of my listings to someone who saw it at an open house. Do you want to be denied that chance? Make sure the ad in the paper has your property’s web address (see #3) in it – buyers are more likely to make the time to see your home if they’ve seen it online and the pictures are good—see #1. See how all of these fit together to form a marketing strategy?
  5. Updates – Make sure you get a full market analysis from your listing agent at least every week. Market conditions change, and it’s important that you know what your competition—those other listings—is doing.

This is just a brief list of some of the most common mistakes (or, dare I say, lack of effort) that I see out there. Make sure you optimize your chances of selling by demanding the best from your agent.

To discuss what I do in addition to the above for my sellers, email me.

Read more: Open Houses and Route Optimizer

Read more: 5 Mistakes Listing Agents Make

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

2008 Regional Outlook: "Fundamentals Sound"

George Mason University has updated their 2008 Outlook for the Washington, DC, metro area. It’s fairly consistent with previous presentations (perhaps slightly more positive, in my opinion.) Here are the key findings:

  • Local job market continues to be very strong, with Washington, DC, having the lowest unemployment rate of the largest 15 job markets (US average = 4.4%, DC = 3.1%.) (See slide 5.) As I have commented here before, the job market is a great indicator of the housing market to come—people go where the jobs are, and they need a place to live. Because this area doesn’t have particularly high vacancy rates in rentals, that translates into pressure on rents (thus providing an incentive for renters to buy), or more demand for homes.
  • This area has significantly fewer foreclosures (as measured per 10,000 units) than most large metropolitan areas in Florida, California, and the rust belt. DC (22), Arlington (27), and Alexandria (34) have the fewest foreclosures of any local county. (See slide 13) Think about those numbers for a minute. For every 10,000 homes in the District, just 22 are in foreclosure. This is consistent with other posts I’ve made about this area having two different markets—close in neighborhoods versus outlying suburbs.
  • Days on market has increased significantly. (However, this can easily be misinterpreted—see my post on “Some Sellers Get It—And Get It In 30 Days!” Total units sold have declined (duh). Total active listings have increased (again, duh.)
  • Percentage change in inventories has slowed dramatically and is consistent with 2003 levels. (See slide 23). We still have quite a backlog to work through, but at least for now it doesn’t appear to be getting any worse.
  • Outlook: “Fundamentals are sound, 2008 will be moderately better than 2007.” (And by “better,” of course, they mean better for sellers.) “Housing prices will be flat until at least Spring & will be a mixed story across the region—some jurisdictions will be negative and others showing increases.”
So in summary, all real estate is local, and the DC market is, all things considered, not a bad place to be right now.

(If you found this interesting, see my related post: When will the DC real estate market turnaround?)

Monday, December 3, 2007

Some Sellers Do "Get It" - And Get it in 30 days!

The average Days on Market (DOM) is a good yardstick to measure whether housing inventory is moving. Generally, the higher that number goes, the more leverage a buyer has in negotiating. As the number ticks up, sellers get more and more anxious; buyers start to think: “What’s wrong with that house that it’s been on so long?”

There are two DOM statistics – Days on Market (MLS) and Days on Market (Property), or DOMM and DOMP. DOMM measures the days that a property has a particular MLS code attached to it. The MLS code is a two letter county abbreviation and 7 digit number, so something like AR1234567. DOMP measures the days that a physical address has been listed (though there are ways to cheat the system on this.) DOMP is a better indicator for buyers to use.

The average DOMP for active listings in Arlington right now is 107. (The average DOMM is 87, FYI.) That means, on average, each listing has been sitting for over 3 months. Looks pretty heavily in the buyer’s favor, right? Sellers appear to just not understand that they’re priced too high. But let’s look closer.

Looking at the 174 successful settlements for October 2007 in Arlington, I’ve graphed how long they were on the market prior to sale. We can see from this chart that the average of 107 (which would fall into the last column) isn’t a good representation of “successful” sellers. In fact, 45% of successful sellers had a contract in under a month, and almost 60% had a contract in under 60 days!

What are the implications of this?

• There are buyers out there for properties that are priced correctly.

• If a property is priced correctly—that is, the sellers “get it,” there is a good chance it will be under contract in 30 days, and a very good chance it will sell in under 60.

• On the other hand, for those sellers that don’t “get it”, the property will very likely sit for a long time—over 4 months. Right now there are 295 active listings in Arlington that have been on for over 4 months. In October, 34 settlements had a DOMP of that long. That means only 34 of 329, or about 10%, sold. Sellers, if you've been on for over 4 months you have only a 10% chance of selling. If you list a home and think, well we'll have an offer in 3 or 4 months--you're just not getting it!

In summary:

• Sellers – Price it right quickly, and it will sell quickly. There are buyers out there, but they are savvy and demanding.

• Buyers – Don’t assume that you have 3 months to make up your mind on that home you love—it could very well be gone if the seller already "gets it." If it’s priced well, the market will respond accordingly. How will you know if it’s competitively priced? Work with an agent, track micro-markets, and be actively looking in those micro-markets. Looking at an “average” won’t be enough.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Attention Sellers: 5 Mistakes Listing Agents Make

Sometimes I'm shocked by the lack of attention to detail on the part of listing agents, and unfortunately sellers usually don't even realize it. There are at least 10-15 significant ways that a listing agent can differentiate themselves--and, by extension, the listed property, and they do not all involve spending more money. In fact, sometimes it's the activities that require time, not money, that get a property more attention. I work with a lot of buyers, so I see exactly how buyers react, and as their agent, I know which inconveniences I'm willing to tolerate to still show your home. Believe me, it's not enough just to list the property in the MLS!

Here are a few "quick hits" that sellers can easily check for themselves. If your property is currently listed, see if your listing meets these criteria. Though they may seem obvious and easy, you'd be surprised at how many listings don't do these simple things that encourage easy showing of your home. As your agent (or check for yourself) to see if your property is "buyer-friendly." In a market where there are so many options for buyers to choose from, combined with buyers who are part of the internet's "instant gratification" generation, it may make the difference between getting your house shown and not.

Obviously you want to make sure your property is listed. But ask your agent to send you the listing (or even just search for it yourself on any of the major broker or agent sites, like this one. Here's a sample of what a property will look like in the MLS (this is one of my recently sold listings.) There are 5 simple yet very important things to check:
  1. Photos - Does the listing have multiple photographs (either via still shots or a "virtual tour")? On the top left corner of the sample listing, you can see a small camera with a number next to it (the stills) and a movie reel (the virtual tour). I'm partial to the stills because they load more quickly, which is critical for the internet-savvy buyer. There are also some really bad virtual tours out there that focus more on the music and zooming rather than actually showing the property. A lot of photos is an absolute must--buyers assume something is wrong with the property if there is just an outside shot (or even worse, no photo at all!)
  2. Directions - You'd be shocked how often directions are incorrect. I often send my buyers on a "drive by" of properties before we go see it together. If the directions are wrong, and they're already out driving and can't easily mapquest it, they will quickly give up on your property. (A corollary to this: if your agent is doing open houses for you, check the ad that runs on the day of the open house.)
  3. The description ("Remarks") - What does your agent say about your property? Is the description accurate? Do you think it presents the most positive features? Are there typos or spelling mistakes? What does that say about their attention to detail?
  4. Showing Instructions - This isn't publicly viewable so you will have to ask your agent to print out their own version of the listing for you. It tells a buyer's agent where and whether to call before showing, and where to find the lockbox. It's important that it not be too difficult to arrange viewings (e.g., "Call two owners and agent prior to showing. Show only M-F 9-5pm.") If I have to make 3 phone calls to coordinate a visit--not to mention coordinating my schedule and my client's--versus the unit across the street from yours that says "Go anytime," which one do you think will be the one we will visit when we just have time for one or two showings? Or if a client calls at the last minute--as they often do--to say "Do you have time today to show me some units in X development?" Also, ask your agent where the lockbox is, and if it's on a fence with 10 other lockboxes, as is often the case of a condo building, make sure it's clearly labeled as belonging to your agent and/or your unit. Better yet, go check out that fence yourself and make sure you can tell which one goes to your unit. If you can't, chances are a buyer and their agent can't either. If you can't find the box and the key, then how can the person that wants to show it to a buyer? It's so frustrating to have planned all week to spend the afternoon with a client, then we can't find your lockbox. I call your agent but get their voicemail. If I can't find the box and key, unfortunately I have no choice but to move on, as there are plenty of other units out there.
  5. Online presence - is your home listed on sites other than the MLS? There are dozens of places that agents can list your home for free, if they take the time to do it. Go to Craigs List, Yahoo real estate, GoogleBase, Trulia, and other sites and search for your home. Study after study show that the majority of homebuyers start their search on the internet, so you want to cast as wide a net as possible. If you can't find it, ask your agent why not.
These are just a few of the ways you can make sure that you raise the expectations bar for the quality of services you receive. To hear more about how listings agents can differentiate themselves, please contact me.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

22 Condo Projects Canceled? Come on, now...get serious.

Let's get serious. Here's another "the sky is falling" example from the press. Today's Post has a good article on some condo projects that have been canceled, and how that situation leaves buyers in the lurch. Sure they get a refund, but no place to live, and no compensation for their efforts. (A good warning on the risks of buying new construction.)

Delta Associates is quoted in the article saying that developers had canceled plans for 22 projects in the 2nd quarter alone! Really...22?! I just don't buy it...unless they're using "plans" pretty loosely. (As an aside, it's not a bad thing that condo projects get cancelled--it keeps inventory reasonable and supports prices.)

I've been hearing about these conversions back to apts for a year or more. And the same developments are always mentioned: the Joule in Arlington, View 14 in DC, the Bellmeade in Leesburg (Leesburg? That’s a VERY different market than Arlington or DC), Four Winds at Oakton, and a few others. Those conversions happened months and months ago. So where are the 22 from THIS QUARTER? Someone please find this list so we can map them out. I'll bet they're further away than this article would leave you to believe. And what counts as a "planned" development? My guess is most of these "plans" are on paper--units were years away from delivery anyway. We'll never see that list in the Post though, because alarmist headlines sell more papers.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Builder Permit Drop: If this is bad, then what counts as GOOD?

Real estate articles in the Post often drive me batty. Take an article in today's paper with this headline:

"Builders' Permit Requests Tumble; Drop Seen as Bad Sign for Housing"

The article goes on to describe that permits for future construction dropped by the largest amount in 17 years, and that this is yet another indicator that the five-year boom ended last year. Really? Duh. Anyone who has looked around their neighborhoods at the For Sale signs in the last year can see that. What I think they missed in this article is that rather than this being a BAD sign for housing, this is actually a GOOD sign. Maybe even a GREAT one. It means that the builders recognize that the pace of building was unsustainable, and that inventory flooded the market. Permits is obviously a leading indicator of deliveries, so now we can expect a drop in deliveries later this year and into next. How can anyone argue that fewer houses being delivered is a BAD thing in this market? It means the market will be coming back into a more reasonable balance between available inventory and buyers. But, as we all know, bad news sells papers, so any available statistic gets spun as "bad news." I'd be willing to bet that if permits went UP, then the headline would have been something like "Builder Permits Increase; Flood of Inventory Expected to Worsen Housing Market's Woes"

Once again, I have to advise that if you're looking to buy a home (not an investment property--that's a whole other post), then you have to look at your individual situation, talk to a Realtor, and run the numbers yourself. Don't let the press--which is certainly a LAGGING indicator--overly influence your decisions.